Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand / Forward vs Farsta

Forward vs Farsta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:00

Forward

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

UPCOMING

Farsta

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.2%0-23.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.2%1-110.0%1-26.1%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.2%3-16.3%3-23.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.7%4+-22.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 46.5% 2.15 +2.5%

Draw 23.1% 26.7% 3.75 -8.0%

Away win 29.3% 38.5% 2.60 -14.3%

Over 2.5 61.8% 65.4% 1.53 -5.5%

Over 3.5 40.2% 42.0% 2.38 -4.3%

BTTS 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Home O1.5 55.8% 54.6% 1.83 +2.1%

Away O1.5 36.8% 47.6% 2.10 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 48% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–2 6.1%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forward1.9

Farsta1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FORWARD · PPG 2.11

FARSTA · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Forward (H) 47.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +2.5%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.0%

Farsta (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forward face Farsta in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forward a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Farsta 29%, so Forward are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Forward and 1.2 for Farsta (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forward are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.10 for Farsta. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +15.1%.

Forward vs Farsta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand Predictions