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Progreso vs Wanderers Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 12 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:00

Progreso

PPG 0.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Wanderers

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-110.0%0-25.9%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.9%1-112.9%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-18.3%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.0%3-13.6%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 40.0% 2.50 -2.3%

Draw 27.1% 32.3% 3.10 -16.0%

Away win 33.8% 36.8% 2.72 -8.1%

Over 2.5 44.9% 45.5% 2.20 -1.2%

Over 3.5 23.6% 23.8% 4.20 -0.9%

BTTS 50.2% 54.1% 1.85 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 16%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.2%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 10.9%

#3 0–1 10.0%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1✓ 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Progreso1.3

Wanderers1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.9% · O3.5 PROB 23.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PROGRESO · PPG 0.33

WANDERERS · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.20) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Progreso (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -2.3%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.0%

Wanderers (A) 33.8%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Progreso face Wanderers in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Progreso a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Wanderers 34%, so Progreso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Progreso and 1.2 for Wanderers (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Progreso are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.20 for Wanderers. This match finished 2-1.

Progreso vs Wanderers Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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