Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Motala vs Stenungsund

Motala vs Stenungsund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Motala

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDL

UPCOMING

Stenungsund

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.4%0-25.4%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.4%1-112.1%1-27.8%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-18.7%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.2%3-14.2%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 42.9% 2.33 -8.7%

Draw 24.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 36.4% 41.7% 2.40 -12.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 69.0% 1.45 -22.0%

Over 3.5 32.8% 47.6% 2.10 -31.1%

BTTS 55.9% — — —

Home O1.5 39.9% — — —

Away O1.5 38.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -5.6%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 7.8%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Motala1.4

Stenungsund1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MOTALA · PPG 1.33

STENUNGSUND · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Motala (H) 39.2%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -8.7%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

Stenungsund (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Motala face Stenungsund in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motala a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Stenungsund 36%, so Motala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Motala and 1.3 for Stenungsund (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motala are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.89 for Stenungsund.

Motala vs Stenungsund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions