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Vänersborgs FK vs Ahlafors Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 20 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:15

Vänersborgs FK

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLW

UPCOMING

Ahlafors

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.03 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.9%0-26.9%0-35.4%0-4+5.6%1 1-03.3%1-17.8%1-29.2%1-37.3%1-4+7.5%2 2-02.2%2-15.2%2-26.2%2-34.9%2-4+5.0%3 3-01.0%3-12.3%3-22.7%3-32.2%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.0%4+-21.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% 23.8% 4.20 -2.5%

Draw 20.0% 26.3% 3.80 -14.4%

Away win 57.2% 63.3% 1.58 -9.6%

Over 2.5 68.4% 70.9% 1.41 -3.6%

Over 3.5 45.0% 49.5% 2.02 -9.1%

BTTS 63.5% 64.9% 1.54 -2.2%

Home O1.5 39.0% — — —

Away O1.5 69.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -5.6%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob63.5%

A 57% / xG 1.3-2.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 1–3 7.3%

#4 0–2 6.9%

#5 2–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vänersborgs FK1.3

Ahlafors2.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VÄNERSBORGS FK · PPG 1.00

AHLAFORS · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.03 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Vänersborgs FK (H) 22.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -2.5%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -14.4%

Ahlafors (A) 57.2%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vänersborgs FK face Ahlafors in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vänersborgs FK a 23% chance, the draw 20% and Ahlafors 57%, so Ahlafors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vänersborgs FK and 2.4 for Ahlafors (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vänersborgs FK are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.67 for Ahlafors.

Vänersborgs FK vs Ahlafors Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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