Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Grebbestad vs Lidköping

Grebbestad vs Lidköping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:00

Grebbestad

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDL

UPCOMING

Lidköping

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 60% chance

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-14.6%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.0%1-19.6%1-24.6%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.2%3-16.9%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.8%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Draw 22.1% 26.3% 3.80 -9.6%

Away win 23.3% 29.4% 3.40 -12.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 65.4% 1.53 -8.8%

Over 3.5 36.4% 44.4% 2.25 -18.1%

BTTS 55.3% 65.4% 1.53 -15.4%

Home O1.5 60.2% 59.9% 1.67 +0.5%

Away O1.5 26.1% 40.0% 2.50 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -9.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.3%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grebbestad2.1

Lidköping1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GREBBESTAD · PPG 1.80

LIDKÖPING · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Grebbestad (H) 54.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -1.5%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.6%

Lidköping (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grebbestad face Lidköping in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grebbestad a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Lidköping 23%, so Grebbestad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Grebbestad and 1.0 for Lidköping (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grebbestad are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.20 for Lidköping. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +3.2%.

Grebbestad vs Lidköping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions