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Kumla vs IFK Skövde Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 20 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:00

Kumla

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

UPCOMING

IFK Skövde

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-110.7%0-210.3%0-36.6%0-4+4.9%1 1-05.4%1-110.3%1-29.9%1-36.4%1-4+4.7%2 2-02.6%2-15.0%2-24.8%2-33.1%2-4+2.3%3 3-00.8%3-11.6%3-21.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.8% 21.1% 4.75 -9.3%

Draw 21.9% 25.3% 3.95 -8.1%

Away win 60.3% 63.7% 1.57 -5.3%

Over 2.5 60.8% 62.5% 1.60 -2.7%

Over 3.5 40.2% 40.0% 2.50 +0.5%

BTTS 55.9% 62.5% 1.60 -10.6%

Home O1.5 30.8% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

Away O1.5 58.3% 65.4% 1.53 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -5.6%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob55.9%

A 60% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.3%

#2 1–1 10.3%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 0–3 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kumla1.0

IFK Skövde1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KUMLA · PPG 1.33

IFK SKÖVDE · PPG 2.22

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.96 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Kumla (H) 17.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -9.3%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.1%

IFK Skövde (A) 60.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kumla face IFK Skövde in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kumla a 18% chance, the draw 22% and IFK Skövde 60%, so IFK Skövde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kumla and 1.9 for IFK Skövde (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kumla are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.22 for IFK Skövde. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.5%.

Kumla vs IFK Skövde Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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