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Bellinzona vs Stade Nyonnais Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:00

Bellinzona

PPG 1.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Stade Nyonnais

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-112.3%0-27.1%0-32.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.6%1-113.3%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.3%2-17.3%2-24.2%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.3%3-12.6%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.9% 41.7% 2.40 -18.6%

Draw 28.8% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Away win 37.3% 37.0% 2.70 +0.7%

Over 2.5 38.8% 52.6% 1.90 -26.3%

Over 3.5 18.9% 30.8% 3.25 -38.6%

BTTS 45.4% 60.6% 1.65 -25.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob45.4%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–1 12.3%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 0–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bellinzona1.1

Stade Nyonnais1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BELLINZONA · PPG 1.00

STADE NYONNAIS · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Bellinzona (H) 33.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -18.6%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Stade Nyonnais (A) 37.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bellinzona face Stade Nyonnais in Switzerland - Challenge League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bellinzona a 34% chance, the draw 29% and Stade Nyonnais 37%, so Stade Nyonnais are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bellinzona and 1.2 for Stade Nyonnais (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bellinzona are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Stade Nyonnais. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 4-0.

Bellinzona vs Stade Nyonnais Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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