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West Adelaide vs Adelaide Utd B Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 08:30

West Adelaide

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Adelaide Utd B

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.4%0-24.3%0-32.8%0-4+2.2%1 1-04.1%1-18.1%1-27.9%1-35.2%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.8%2-17.4%2-27.3%2-34.8%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.3%3-14.5%3-24.5%3-32.9%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.2%4+-23.1%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 31.3% 3.20 +29.0%

Draw 23.0% 25.0% 4.00 -4.8%

Away win 36.7% 55.6% 1.80 -33.9%

Over 2.5 65.4% 73.5% 1.36 -11.1%

Over 3.5 43.0% 57.1% 1.75 -24.8%

BTTS 63.6% 74.1% 1.35 -14.1%

Home O1.5 55.0% 48.3% 2.07 +13.9%

Away O1.5 44.6% 69.4% 1.44 -35.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.6%

A 37% / xG 1.8-2.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Adelaide1.8

Adelaide Utd B2.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST ADELAIDE · PPG 1.00

ADELAIDE UTD B · PPG 1.83

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.83) strong but model favors Home (P=40.3%)

Win probability 1X2

West Adelaide (H) 40.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +29.0%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.8%

Adelaide Utd B (A) 36.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -33.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

West Adelaide face Adelaide Utd B in Australia - South Australia NPL on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Adelaide a 40% chance, the draw 23% and Adelaide Utd B 37%, so West Adelaide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for West Adelaide and 2.0 for Adelaide Utd B (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Adelaide are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.83 for Adelaide Utd B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.0%. This match finished 3-1.

West Adelaide vs Adelaide Utd B Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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