Today / Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A / Union Plaani vs HPS

Union Plaani vs HPS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 13:00

Union Plaani

PPG 0.33 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

HPS

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-13.9%0-26.3%0-36.8%0-4+12.4%1 1-01.4%1-14.6%1-27.5%1-38.0%1-4+14.7%2 2-00.8%2-12.7%2-24.4%2-34.8%2-4+8.7%3 3-00.3%3-11.1%3-21.8%3-31.9%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.6% 25.0% 4.00 -27.4%

Draw 19.6% 25.6% 3.90 -14.1%

Away win 66.9% 62.5% 1.60 +7.0%

Over 2.5 73.6% 78.1% 1.28 -5.8%

Over 3.5 46.8% 57.8% 1.73 -19.0%

BTTS 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Home O1.5 46.9% 47.6% 2.10 -1.5%

Away O1.5 77.8% 73.5% 1.36 +5.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 24.0%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)3.2 BTTS prob63.3%

A 67% / xG 1.2-3.2 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 8.0%

#2 1–2 7.5%

#3 0–3 6.8%

#4 1–4 6.5%

#5 0–2✓ 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Plaani1.2

HPS3.2

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.6% · O3.5 PROB 46.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION PLAANI · PPG 0.33

HPS · PPG 2.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Union Plaani (H) 13.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -27.4%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -14.1%

HPS (A) 66.9%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Plaani face HPS in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Plaani a 14% chance, the draw 20% and HPS 67%, so HPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Union Plaani and 3.2 for HPS (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Plaani are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 2.33 for HPS. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +30.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Union Plaani vs HPS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A Predictions