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HPS vs Union Plaani Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

HPS

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union Plaani

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.30 for Home, form 1.38 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.3%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.0%1-14.3%1-22.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.7%2-17.2%2-23.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.5%3-18.1%3-24.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-014.9%4+-116.0%4+-28.5%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.4% 72.5% 1.38 -5.6%

Draw 16.3% 21.7% 4.60 -15.0%

Away win 15.4% 18.9% 5.30 -11.0%

Over 2.5 71.6% 83.3% 1.20 -14.1%

Over 3.5 52.2% 63.7% 1.57 -18.1%

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 33.8% 43.9% 2.28 -22.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 30.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 68% / xG 3.4-1.1 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 3–0 7.5%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 4–1 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HPS3.4

Union Plaani1.1

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HPS · PPG 1.38

UNION PLAANI · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.30 for Home, form 1.38 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

HPS (H) 68.4%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -5.6%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -15.0%

Union Plaani (A) 15.4%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

HPS face Union Plaani in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HPS a 68% chance, the draw 16% and Union Plaani 15%, so HPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for HPS and 1.1 for Union Plaani (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HPS are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.50 for Union Plaani.

HPS vs Union Plaani Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A Predictions