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Boden vs IFK Östersund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Promotion Round ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:00

Boden

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

IFK Östersund

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.6%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.7%1-111.1%1-27.2%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.3%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.1%3-15.2%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 33.9% 2.95 +38.4%

Draw 24.3% 27.2% 3.68 -6.3%

Away win 28.8% 50.3% 1.99 -25.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 69.9% 1.43 -14.6%

Over 3.5 36.6% 46.9% 2.13 -22.0%

BTTS 60.3% 70.9% 1.41 -15.0%

Home O1.5 48.8% 48.1% 2.08 +1.5%

Away O1.5 37.3% 59.5% 1.68 -37.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.3%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boden1.7

IFK Östersund1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BODEN · PPG 1.75

IFK ÖSTERSUND · PPG 1.12

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Boden (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +38.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.68 · IMPLIED 27.2% EV -6.3%

IFK Östersund (A) 28.8%

ODDS 1.99 · IMPLIED 50.3% EV -25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boden face IFK Östersund in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boden a 47% chance, the draw 24% and IFK Östersund 29%, so Boden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Boden and 1.3 for IFK Östersund (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boden are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.12 for IFK Östersund. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Boden vs IFK Östersund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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