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Skellefteå vs Boden Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Promotion Round ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:00

Skellefteå

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Boden

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-16.1%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.0%1-110.5%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.0%2-23.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.8%3-15.1%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-13.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% 72.5% 1.38 -24.0%

Draw 23.4% 23.5% 4.25 -0.3%

Away win 21.5% 17.9% 5.60 +12.2%

Over 2.5 50.5% 69.9% 1.43 -27.8%

Over 3.5 29.6% 48.8% 2.05 -23.6%

BTTS 49.2% 62.5% 1.60 -21.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% — — —

Away O1.5 18.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 2–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skellefteå1.7

Boden0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SKELLEFTEÅ · PPG 2.38

BODEN · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Skellefteå (H) 55.1%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -24.0%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 4.25 · IMPLIED 23.5% EV -0.3%

Boden (A) 21.5%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skellefteå face Boden in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skellefteå a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Boden 22%, so Skellefteå are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Skellefteå and 0.7 for Boden (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skellefteå are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.50 for Boden. This match finished 2-2.

Skellefteå vs Boden Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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