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IFK Luleå vs Kubikenborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Promotion Round ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:00

IFK Luleå

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kubikenborg

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.7%0-23.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.2%1-19.5%1-26.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.8%3-16.4%3-24.2%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.1%4+-23.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 59.2% 1.69 -18.9%

Draw 22.6% 25.4% 3.94 -6.6%

Away win 29.4% 26.7% 3.74 +6.0%

Over 2.5 62.8% 75.8% 1.32 -17.1%

Over 3.5 39.4% 52.6% 1.90 -25.1%

BTTS 61.3% 73.5% 1.36 -16.6%

Home O1.5 55.7% 69.0% 1.45 -19.2%

Away O1.5 41.2% 45.7% 2.19 -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.3%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Luleå2.0

Kubikenborg1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK LULEÅ · PPG 1.62

KUBIKENBORG · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IFK Luleå (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -18.9%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.94 · IMPLIED 25.4% EV -6.6%

Kubikenborg (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.74 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Luleå face Kubikenborg in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Luleå a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Kubikenborg 29%, so IFK Luleå are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for IFK Luleå and 1.3 for Kubikenborg (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Luleå are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.62 for Kubikenborg. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 1-3.

IFK Luleå vs Kubikenborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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