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Täfteå vs Lucksta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Promotion Round ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Täfteå

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lucksta

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 79.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.1%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.9%1-16.0%1-23.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.9%2-18.5%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.4%3-18.0%3-25.0%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-111.2%4+-27.0%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.7% 53.2% 1.88 +10.4%

Draw 19.8% 25.4% 3.94 -13.2%

Away win 21.5% 32.7% 3.06 -20.5%

Over 2.5 67.3% 79.4% 1.26 -15.2%

Over 3.5 46.9% 57.8% 1.73 -18.9%

BTTS 63.1% 78.1% 1.28 -19.2%

Home O1.5 70.0% 69.0% 1.45 +1.5%

Away O1.5 37.3% 54.3% 1.84 -31.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.1%

H 59% / xG 2.8-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.0%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 3–1 8.0%

#4 1–2 3.7%

#5 2–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Täfteå2.8

Lucksta1.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TÄFTEÅ · PPG 2.00

LUCKSTA · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.58 for Home, form 2.00 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Täfteå (H) 58.7%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV +10.4%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.94 · IMPLIED 25.4% EV -13.2%

Lucksta (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.06 · IMPLIED 32.7% EV -20.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Täfteå face Lucksta in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Täfteå a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Lucksta 22%, so Täfteå are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Täfteå and 1.2 for Lucksta (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Täfteå are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Lucksta. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Täfteå vs Lucksta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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