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Skellefteå vs IFK Östersund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Promotion Round ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Skellefteå

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

UPCOMING

IFK Östersund

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 67.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.3%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.9%1-18.0%1-24.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.5%2-19.6%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.7%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-18.2%4+-24.1%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.9% 58.8% 1.70 -1.6%

Draw 19.4% 26.3% 3.80 -15.8%

Away win 22.7% 26.2% 3.82 -8.0%

Over 2.5 66.8% 67.1% 1.49 -0.5%

Over 3.5 44.9% 43.3% 2.31 +3.7%

BTTS 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Home O1.5 66.3% 64.1% 1.56 +3.4%

Away O1.5 30.7% 41.2% 2.43 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.5%

H 58% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–2 4.0%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skellefteå2.4

IFK Östersund1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SKELLEFTEÅ · PPG 2.22

IFK ÖSTERSUND · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.40 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Skellefteå (H) 57.9%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -1.6%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -15.8%

IFK Östersund (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.82 · IMPLIED 26.2% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skellefteå face IFK Östersund in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skellefteå a 58% chance, the draw 19% and IFK Östersund 23%, so Skellefteå are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Skellefteå and 1.0 for IFK Östersund (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skellefteå are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.11 for IFK Östersund. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +17.5%.

Skellefteå vs IFK Östersund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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