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IFK Luleå vs Täfteå Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Promotion Round ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

IFK Luleå

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

UPCOMING

Täfteå

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.6%0-23.0%0-31.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-04.7%1-17.9%1-26.5%1-33.6%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.7%3-16.1%3-25.1%3-32.8%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.4%4+-24.5%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 59.9% 1.67 -20.7%

Draw 22.0% 26.0% 3.85 -9.2%

Away win 30.5% 27.8% 3.60 +9.8%

Over 2.5 68.4% 75.8% 1.32 -9.7%

Over 3.5 49.4% 54.9% 1.82 -10.1%

BTTS 63.5% 73.0% 1.37 -13.0%

Home O1.5 62.9% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% 45.9% 2.18 +4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 48% / xG 2.2-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 6.5%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Luleå2.2

Täfteå1.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK LULEÅ · PPG 1.44

TÄFTEÅ · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IFK Luleå (H) 47.5%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -20.7%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.2%

Täfteå (A) 30.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Luleå face Täfteå in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Luleå a 48% chance, the draw 22% and Täfteå 31%, so IFK Luleå are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for IFK Luleå and 1.7 for Täfteå (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Luleå are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.33 for Täfteå. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +4.4%.

IFK Luleå vs Täfteå Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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