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IFK Umeå vs Friska Viljor Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Relegation Round ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

IFK Umeå

PPG 0.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

UPCOMING

Friska Viljor

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWL

// Model verdict

Away 78% chance

Model probability 70.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-15.6%0-27.8%0-37.2%0-4+10.0%1 1-02.2%1-16.2%1-28.7%1-38.1%1-4+11.2%2 2-01.3%2-13.5%2-24.9%2-34.6%2-4+6.3%3 3-00.5%3-11.3%3-21.8%3-31.7%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.1% 13.2% 7.60 -0.3%

Draw 16.1% 17.4% 5.75 -4.5%

Away win 70.9% 80.6% 1.24 -12.1%

Over 2.5 68.4% 83.3% 1.20 -17.9%

Over 3.5 49.4% 62.1% 1.61 -20.5%

BTTS 61.8% 69.4% 1.44 -11.0%

Home O1.5 31.2% 35.2% 2.84 -11.4%

Away O1.5 69.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 78%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob61.8%

A 71% / xG 1.1-2.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.7%

#2 1–3 8.1%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 0–3 7.2%

#5 1–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Umeå1.1

Friska Viljor2.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK UMEÅ · PPG 0.33

FRISKA VILJOR · PPG 1.25

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

78%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.67 for Away, form 0.33 vs 1.25

Win probability 1X2

IFK Umeå (H) 13.1%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV -0.3%

Draw 16.1%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -4.5%

Friska Viljor (A) 70.9%

ODDS 1.24 · IMPLIED 80.6% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Umeå face Friska Viljor in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Umeå a 13% chance, the draw 16% and Friska Viljor 71%, so Friska Viljor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for IFK Umeå and 2.8 for Friska Viljor (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Umeå are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.25 for Friska Viljor.

IFK Umeå vs Friska Viljor Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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