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FK Beograd vs NE MetroStars Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 07:30

FK Beograd

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

NE MetroStars

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.3%0-25.5%0-33.9%0-4+3.3%1 1-04.0%1-18.3%1-28.8%1-36.2%1-4+5.3%2 2-03.1%2-16.6%2-26.9%2-34.9%2-4+4.2%3 3-01.7%3-13.5%3-23.7%3-32.6%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.0%4+-22.1%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 27.8% 3.60 +16.3%

Draw 22.6% 26.0% 3.85 -7.8%

Away win 45.1% 58.8% 1.70 -23.3%

Over 2.5 65.4% 66.7% 1.50 -1.9%

Over 3.5 43.0% 46.5% 2.15 -7.5%

BTTS 63.5% 66.7% 1.50 -4.8%

Home O1.5 51.7% 38.2% 2.62 +35.4%

Away O1.5 46.1% 63.7% 1.57 -27.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.5%

A 45% / xG 1.6-2.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 1–2✓ 8.8%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Beograd1.6

NE MetroStars2.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FK BEOGRAD · PPG 2.00

NE METROSTARS · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

FK Beograd (H) 32.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +16.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -7.8%

NE MetroStars (A) 45.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Beograd face NE MetroStars in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Beograd a 32% chance, the draw 23% and NE MetroStars 45%, so NE MetroStars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FK Beograd and 2.1 for NE MetroStars (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Beograd are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.33 for NE MetroStars. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +35.4%. This match finished 1-2.

FK Beograd vs NE MetroStars Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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