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Playford P. vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 05:30

Playford P.

PPG 2.17 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Adelaide Comets

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 74.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.6%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.3%1-14.9%1-22.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.4%2-17.8%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.8%3-18.2%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-015.4%4+-114.3%4+-26.6%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.2% 67.6% 1.48 -7.9%

Draw 18.5% 24.4% 4.10 -14.5%

Away win 19.3% 20.0% 5.00 -2.1%

Over 2.5 65.4% 69.4% 1.44 -5.8%

Over 3.5 43.0% 50.0% 2.00 -14.0%

BTTS 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Home O1.5 74.3% 69.4% 1.44 +7.0%

Away O1.5 27.9% 36.4% 2.75 -14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 62% / xG 3.2-0.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.8%

#2 2–0 8.4%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 2–1 7.8%

#5 4–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Playford P.3.2

Adelaide Comets0.9

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PLAYFORD P. · PPG 2.17

ADELAIDE COMETS · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=62.2%

Win probability 1X2

Playford P. (H) 62.2%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -7.9%

Draw 18.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -14.5%

Adelaide Comets (A) 19.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Playford P. face Adelaide Comets in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Playford P. a 62% chance, the draw 19% and Adelaide Comets 19%, so Playford P. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Playford P. and 0.9 for Adelaide Comets (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Playford P. are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.33 for Adelaide Comets. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +31.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Playford P. vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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