Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / North Geelong vs North Sunshine

North Geelong vs North Sunshine Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 07:00

North Geelong

PPG 1.71 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

North Sunshine

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.2%0-23.5%0-31.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.2%1-18.5%1-27.0%1-33.9%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.2%2-18.6%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.5%3-15.8%3-24.8%3-32.6%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.6%4+-23.8%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% — — —

Draw 22.0% — — —

Away win 35.1% — — —

Over 2.5 65.8% — — —

Over 3.5 43.1% — — —

BTTS 63.4% — — —

Home O1.5 59.8% — — —

Away O1.5 49.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.4%

H 43% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Geelong2.0

North Sunshine1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH GEELONG · PPG 1.71

NORTH SUNSHINE · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=42.9%

Win probability 1X2

North Geelong (H) 42.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

North Sunshine (A) 35.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

North Geelong face North Sunshine in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Geelong a 43% chance, the draw 22% and North Sunshine 35%, so North Geelong are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for North Geelong and 1.6 for North Sunshine (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Geelong are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.88 for North Sunshine. This match finished 3-0.

North Geelong vs North Sunshine Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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