Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / M. Victory B vs Melbourne K.

M. Victory B vs Melbourne K. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 15 ·Monday, June 1, 2026, 10:30

M. Victory B

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Melbourne K.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-16.1%0-25.8%0-33.7%0-4+2.7%1 1-05.0%1-19.4%1-28.9%1-35.7%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.8%2-17.2%2-26.8%2-34.3%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.9%3-13.7%3-23.5%3-32.2%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 35.7% 2.80 -0.9%

Draw 22.3% 27.8% 3.60 -11.8%

Away win 42.3% 50.0% 2.00 -15.4%

Over 2.5 65.3% 71.4% 1.40 -8.6%

Over 3.5 43.1% 51.8% 1.93 -16.8%

BTTS 63.4% 75.2% 1.33 -15.7%

Home O1.5 45.2% 52.4% 1.91 -13.7%

Away O1.5 56.6% 62.1% 1.61 -8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.4%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2✓ 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

M. Victory B1.5

Melbourne K.1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

M. VICTORY B · PPG 2.33

MELBOURNE K. · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=35.4%

Win probability 1X2

M. Victory B (H) 35.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -0.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.8%

Melbourne K. (A) 42.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

M. Victory B face Melbourne K. in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Monday, June 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives M. Victory B a 35% chance, the draw 22% and Melbourne K. 42%, so Melbourne K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for M. Victory B and 1.9 for Melbourne K. (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, M. Victory B are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Melbourne K.. This match finished 1-2.

M. Victory B vs Melbourne K. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Predictions