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Northcote City vs Langwarrin Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 10:30

Northcote City

PPG 2.43 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Langwarrin

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.5%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.3%1-18.2%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-19.5%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.2%3-17.3%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-17.3%4+-22.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.4% 73.5% 1.36 -20.6%

Draw 21.3% 20.8% 4.80 +1.3%

Away win 20.3% 20.0% 5.00 +0.9%

Over 2.5 60.7% 76.9% 1.30 -21.1%

Over 3.5 36.6% 57.8% 1.73 -36.7%

BTTS 52.0% 71.4% 1.40 -27.2%

Home O1.5 68.8% 83.3% 1.20 -17.4%

Away O1.5 27.9% 38.9% 2.57 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.0%

H 58% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 9.2%

#5 1–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Northcote City2.3

Langwarrin0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHCOTE CITY · PPG 2.43

LANGWARRIN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.43) vs P(Home)=58.4%

Win probability 1X2

Northcote City (H) 58.4%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -20.6%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +1.3%

Langwarrin (A) 20.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Northcote City face Langwarrin in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northcote City a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Langwarrin 20%, so Northcote City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Northcote City and 0.8 for Langwarrin (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northcote City are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 1.00 for Langwarrin. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Northcote City vs Langwarrin Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Predictions