Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Eltham Redbacks vs Bulleen

Eltham Redbacks vs Bulleen Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 10:30

Eltham Redbacks

PPG 2.14 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bulleen

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.4%0-23.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.2%1-110.0%1-27.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.2%3-15.8%3-24.0%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.1%4+-22.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 46.5% 2.15 -2.2%

Draw 23.4% 29.4% 3.40 -12.3%

Away win 31.1% 37.0% 2.70 -16.0%

Over 2.5 64.1% 66.7% 1.50 -3.9%

Over 3.5 39.2% 46.1% 2.17 -14.9%

BTTS 61.4% 71.4% 1.40 -14.0%

Home O1.5 55.0% 56.5% 1.77 -2.6%

Away O1.5 32.0% 50.5% 1.98 -36.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.4%

H 46% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2✓ 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eltham Redbacks1.9

Bulleen1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ELTHAM REDBACKS · PPG 2.14

BULLEEN · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.14) > Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Eltham Redbacks (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -2.2%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.3%

Bulleen (A) 31.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eltham Redbacks face Bulleen in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eltham Redbacks a 46% chance, the draw 23% and Bulleen 31%, so Eltham Redbacks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Eltham Redbacks and 1.4 for Bulleen (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eltham Redbacks are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.71 for Bulleen. This match finished 2-2.

Eltham Redbacks vs Bulleen Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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