Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Njardvik vs IR Reykjavik

Njardvik vs IR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 8 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 19:15

Njardvik

PPG 1.33 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

IR Reykjavik

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.4%0-23.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.0%1-111.0%1-26.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.6%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.5%3-15.5%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 56.5% 1.77 -12.2%

Draw 24.6% 25.3% 3.95 -1.7%

Away win 25.8% 28.2% 3.55 -5.1%

Over 2.5 60.7% 69.0% 1.45 -12.0%

Over 3.5 36.6% 46.5% 2.15 -21.3%

BTTS 59.1% 69.4% 1.44 -14.9%

Home O1.5 55.0% 64.5% 1.55 -14.8%

Away O1.5 32.0% 43.5% 2.30 -26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.1%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Njardvik1.7

IR Reykjavik1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NJARDVIK · PPG 1.33

IR REYKJAVIK · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Njardvik (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -12.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -1.7%

IR Reykjavik (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Njardvik face IR Reykjavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Njardvik a 50% chance, the draw 25% and IR Reykjavik 26%, so Njardvik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Njardvik and 1.2 for IR Reykjavik (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Njardvik are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.75 for IR Reykjavik. This match finished 5-1.

Njardvik vs IR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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