Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / Bentleigh G. vs Hume City

Bentleigh G. vs Hume City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 10:30

Bentleigh G.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hume City

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-19.0%0-29.0%0-36.0%0-4+4.8%1 1-04.9%1-19.9%1-29.9%1-36.6%1-4+5.3%2 2-02.7%2-15.5%2-25.5%2-33.7%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.0%3-12.0%3-22.0%3-31.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.3% 27.4% 3.65 -13.4%

Draw 22.0% 27.4% 3.65 -11.8%

Away win 56.7% 55.6% 1.80 +2.1%

Over 2.5 60.9% 58.8% 1.70 +3.5%

Over 3.5 38.5% 36.4% 2.75 +5.9%

BTTS 55.4% 61.7% 1.62 -10.3%

Home O1.5 42.3% 36.4% 2.75 +16.3%

Away O1.5 44.6% 57.8% 1.73 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob55.4%

A 57% / xG 1.1-2.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.0%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 1–3 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bentleigh G.1.1

Hume City2.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BENTLEIGH G. · PPG 1.50

HUME CITY · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Bentleigh G. (H) 21.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -13.4%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.8%

Hume City (A) 56.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bentleigh G. face Hume City in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bentleigh G. a 21% chance, the draw 22% and Hume City 57%, so Hume City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bentleigh G. and 2.0 for Hume City (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bentleigh G. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Hume City. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 1-5.

Bentleigh G. vs Hume City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL Predictions