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Oakleigh C. vs St. Albans Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 10:15

Oakleigh C.

PPG 2.14 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

St. Albans

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.5%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.7%1-16.6%1-22.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.4%2-18.9%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.4%3-18.0%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-012.1%4+-110.4%4+-24.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.6% 75.2% 1.33 -14.1%

Draw 20.0% 20.8% 4.80 -2.4%

Away win 15.4% 14.3% 7.00 +4.7%

Over 2.5 64.1% 70.4% 1.42 -9.0%

Over 3.5 40.7% 48.8% 2.05 -16.6%

BTTS 53.5% 62.5% 1.60 -14.4%

Home O1.5 68.8% 76.9% 1.30 -10.6%

Away O1.5 27.9% 29.4% 3.40 -3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.5%

H 65% / xG 2.7-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.4%

#2 3–0 9.4%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oakleigh C.2.7

St. Albans0.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OAKLEIGH C. · PPG 2.14

ST. ALBANS · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=64.6%

Win probability 1X2

Oakleigh C. (H) 64.6%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -14.1%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -2.4%

St. Albans (A) 15.4%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oakleigh C. face St. Albans in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oakleigh C. a 65% chance, the draw 20% and St. Albans 15%, so Oakleigh C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Oakleigh C. and 0.9 for St. Albans (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oakleigh C. are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.25 for St. Albans. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Oakleigh C. vs St. Albans Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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