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Australia - South Australia NPL Friday, June 5, 2026 10:00 
Adelaide City PPG 2.20 
Sturt Lions PPG 1.20
Australia - South Australia NPL Friday, June 5, 2026 10:00 Adelaide City PPG 2.20VS PENDING
Sturt Lions PPG 1.20Away + BTTS· +3.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 64.1% Odds: 1.50 -3.9%
Over 3.5 40.2% Odds: 2.15 -13.6%
BTTS 61.4% Odds: 1.50 -7.9%
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1
2nd 2-1
3rd 2-0
4th 3-1
5th 2-2
Expected Goals (xG)
Adelaide City 2.19
Sturt Lions 1.31
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -3.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -3.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away + BTTS (+3.9%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away + BTTS (+3.9%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 30 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 43%
O2.5/Under 70%
BTTS/No 63%
Score Hit 23%
ROI -30.0%
Bet Hit 50% (8 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=53.6%