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Adelaide City vs Sturt Lions Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 10:00

Adelaide City

PPG 2.20 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sturt Lions

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.0%0-22.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.6%1-18.7%1-25.7%1-32.5%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.3%3-16.9%3-24.5%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-16.3%4+-24.1%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 61.7% 1.62 -13.2%

Draw 22.6% 26.0% 3.85 -7.8%

Away win 23.8% 24.4% 4.10 -1.5%

Over 2.5 64.1% 66.7% 1.50 -3.9%

Over 3.5 40.2% 46.5% 2.15 -13.6%

BTTS 61.4% 66.7% 1.50 -7.9%

Home O1.5 60.4% 65.4% 1.53 -7.6%

Away O1.5 32.0% 38.2% 2.62 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.4%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 3–1 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide City2.2

Sturt Lions1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE CITY · PPG 2.20

STURT LIONS · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=53.6%

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide City (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.2%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -7.8%

Sturt Lions (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide City face Sturt Lions in Australia - South Australia NPL on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide City a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Sturt Lions 24%, so Adelaide City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Adelaide City and 1.3 for Sturt Lions (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide City are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.20 for Sturt Lions. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 4-1.

Adelaide City vs Sturt Lions Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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