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Dandenong City vs Heidelberg Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 09:45

Dandenong City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Heidelberg Utd

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-112.1%0-28.8%0-34.3%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.5%1-112.5%1-29.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.4%2-16.4%2-24.7%2-32.3%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.5%3-12.2%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.1% 19.6% 5.10 +29.0%

Draw 27.8% 25.3% 3.95 +5.9%

Away win 43.1% 64.5% 1.55 -33.2%

Over 2.5 48.7% 58.8% 1.70 -17.2%

Over 3.5 28.6% 36.4% 2.75 -12.8%

BTTS 54.0% 57.8% 1.73 -6.6%

Home O1.5 36.7% 29.0% 3.45 +26.6%

Away O1.5 43.1% 63.7% 1.57 -32.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.0%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 8.3%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dandenong City1.0

Heidelberg Utd1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 1.50

HEIDELBERG UTD · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Dandenong City (H) 29.1%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +29.0%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +5.9%

Heidelberg Utd (A) 43.1%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -33.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong City face Heidelberg Utd in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong City a 29% chance, the draw 28% and Heidelberg Utd 43%, so Heidelberg Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Dandenong City and 1.5 for Heidelberg Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Heidelberg Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Dandenong City vs Heidelberg Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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