Australia - Victoria NPLRegular Season - 16Green Gully Reserve· MelbourneFriday, June 5, 202609:30
Green GullyPPG 0.14
VSPENDING
AvondalePPG 1.29
HomeO15· +20.2%✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
90% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home12.2%
Odds: 6.50EV: -12.4%
Draw19.9%
Odds: 4.80EV: -2.7%
Away67.9%
Odds: 1.35EV: -8.3%
Model lean: AwayNot tracked as an official bet.
Goals Markets
Over 2.564.1%Odds: 1.48-5.1%
Over 3.539.2%Odds: 2.20-13.8%
BTTS48.0%Odds: 1.67-19.8%
Correct Score Picks
1st0-2
2nd0-3
3rd0-1
4th1-2
5th0-4
Expected Goals (xG)
Green Gully
0.60
Avondale
2.65
Model Suggestion
Away-8.3%NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Away, but EV is -8.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. Highest raw EV: HomeO15 (+20.2%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
90%
UPSET_VALUE
Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs Home POOR (0.14)