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Green Gully vs Avondale Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 09:30

Green Gully

PPG 0.14 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Avondale

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-110.3%0-213.6%0-312.0%0-4+15.0%1 1-02.3%1-16.2%1-28.2%1-37.2%1-4+9.0%2 2-00.7%2-11.9%2-22.5%2-32.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.2% 15.4% 6.50 -12.4%

Draw 19.9% 20.8% 4.80 -2.7%

Away win 67.9% 74.1% 1.35 -8.3%

Over 2.5 64.1% 67.6% 1.48 -5.1%

Over 3.5 39.2% 45.5% 2.20 -13.8%

BTTS 48.0% 59.9% 1.67 -19.8%

Home O1.5 33.4% 27.8% 3.60 +20.2%

Away O1.5 68.3% 74.1% 1.35 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob48.0%

A 68% / xG 0.6-2.6 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2✓ 13.6%

#2 0–3 12.0%

#3 0–1 10.3%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 0–4 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Green Gully0.6

Avondale2.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.14

AVONDALE · PPG 1.29

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs Home POOR (0.14)

Win probability 1X2

Green Gully (H) 12.2%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -12.4%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -2.7%

Avondale (A) 67.9%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Green Gully face Avondale in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Green Gully a 12% chance, the draw 20% and Avondale 68%, so Avondale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Green Gully and 2.6 for Avondale (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Green Gully are averaging 0.14 points per game versus 1.29 for Avondale. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +20.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Green Gully vs Avondale Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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