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PEPO vs Reipas Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Thursday, June 4, 2026, 16:00

PEPO

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Reipas

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.5%0-24.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.1%1-111.1%1-26.8%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.5%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.4%3-15.4%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 48.8% 2.05 -5.5%

Draw 25.5% 29.4% 3.40 -8.0%

Away win 28.3% 34.5% 2.90 -10.8%

Over 2.5 54.1% 71.4% 1.40 -24.3%

Over 3.5 35.8% 52.4% 1.91 -31.6%

BTTS 55.4% 73.5% 1.36 -24.7%

Home O1.5 55.0% 63.7% 1.57 -13.7%

Away O1.5 32.0% 50.0% 2.00 -36.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 24.0%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PEPO1.7

Reipas1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PEPO · PPG 2.33

REIPAS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=46.1%

Win probability 1X2

PEPO (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -5.5%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.0%

Reipas (A) 28.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

PEPO face Reipas in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Thursday, June 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PEPO a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Reipas 28%, so PEPO are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for PEPO and 1.2 for Reipas (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PEPO are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Reipas. This match finished 2-1.

PEPO vs Reipas Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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