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Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 15:30

Gornik Zabrze

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Korona Kielce

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWD

// Model verdict

Home 56% chance

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a clear edge.

+10.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-15.7%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.7%1-110.6%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.7%3-16.1%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.3%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.8% 54.3% 1.84 +10.0%

Draw 22.3% 28.2% 3.55 -20.8%

Away win 17.9% 24.4% 4.10 -26.6%

Over 2.5 52.2% 54.6% 1.83 -4.5%

Over 3.5 30.0% 32.3% 3.10 -7.0%

BTTS 50.3% 57.8% 1.73 -13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.3%

H 60% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 11.7%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gornik Zabrze1.9

Korona Kielce0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GORNIK ZABRZE · PPG 2.00

KORONA KIELCE · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=59.8%

Win probability 1X2

Gornik Zabrze (H) 59.8%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +10.0%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -20.8%

Korona Kielce (A) 17.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gornik Zabrze face Korona Kielce in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gornik Zabrze a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Korona Kielce 18%, so Gornik Zabrze are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Gornik Zabrze and 0.9 for Korona Kielce (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gornik Zabrze are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.14 for Korona Kielce. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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