Today / Brazil - Serie C / Figueirense vs Paysandu

Figueirense vs Paysandu Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 23:30

Figueirense

PPG 0.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Paysandu

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 57.1% vs bookmaker-implied 37.0% — a clear edge.

+54.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-114.0%0-212.7%0-37.7%0-4+5.2%1 1-05.8%1-110.5%1-29.5%1-35.7%1-4+3.9%2 2-02.2%2-13.9%2-23.5%2-32.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.5%3-11.0%3-20.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.5% 40.8% 2.45 -34.3%

Draw 25.3% 32.3% 3.10 -12.9%

Away win 57.1% 37.0% 2.70 +54.2%

Over 2.5 48.5% 46.5% 2.15 +4.3%

Over 3.5 27.9% 25.3% 3.95 +6.1%

BTTS 47.2% 54.6% 1.83 -13.6%

Home O1.5 17.3% 39.2% 2.55 -33.5%

Away O1.5 54.0% 36.4% 2.75 +48.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob47.2%

A 57% / xG 0.7-1.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.7%

#2 0–1 14.0%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 1–2 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Figueirense0.7

Paysandu1.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FIGUEIRENSE · PPG 0.75

PAYSANDU · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Figueirense (H) 17.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -34.3%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.9%

Paysandu (A) 57.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +54.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Figueirense face Paysandu in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Figueirense a 18% chance, the draw 25% and Paysandu 57%, so Paysandu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Figueirense and 1.8 for Paysandu (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Figueirense are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 2.00 for Paysandu. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +80.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Figueirense vs Paysandu Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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