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Paysandu vs Brusque Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Second Stage · Matchday 1 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 21:00

Paysandu

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brusque

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 55% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+13.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.3%0-24.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.7%1-110.9%1-26.9%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.5%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.4%3-15.5%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 58.8% 1.70 -22.8%

Draw 24.4% 30.3% 3.30 -11.7%

Away win 30.2% 23.8% 4.20 +26.8%

Over 2.5 59.6% 52.6% 1.90 +13.2%

Over 3.5 36.4% 30.8% 3.25 +18.3%

BTTS 59.0% 55.6% 1.80 +6.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Away O1.5 36.8% 23.1% 4.33 +59.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.0%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paysandu1.7

Brusque1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PAYSANDU · PPG 1.70

BRUSQUE · PPG 0.78

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Paysandu (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -22.8%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.7%

Brusque (A) 30.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +26.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paysandu face Brusque in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paysandu a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Brusque 30%, so Paysandu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Paysandu and 1.3 for Brusque (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paysandu are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.78 for Brusque. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +59.3%.

Paysandu vs Brusque Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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