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Santa Cruz vs Botafogo PB Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Second Stage · Matchday 1 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 21:30

Santa Cruz

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Botafogo PB

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.1%0-112.0%0-24.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.5%1-113.1%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.1%2-17.2%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.3%3-12.6%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 44.4% 2.25 -12.0%

Draw 31.7% 34.5% 2.90 -8.1%

Away win 29.1% 34.5% 2.90 -9.4%

Over 2.5 38.8% 47.6% 2.10 -18.5%

Over 3.5 19.1% 26.7% 3.75 -17.0%

BTTS 48.0% 54.6% 1.83 -12.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 42.0% 2.38 -26.7%

Away O1.5 23.4% 33.3% 3.00 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 39% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.1%

#2 1–0 16.5%

#3 1–1 13.1%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Cruz1.1

Botafogo PB0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA CRUZ · PPG 1.44

BOTAFOGO PB · PPG 1.40

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.30, combined xG 1.89 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santa Cruz (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -12.0%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.1%

Botafogo PB (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Cruz face Botafogo PB in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Cruz a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Botafogo PB 29%, so Santa Cruz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Santa Cruz and 0.8 for Botafogo PB (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Cruz are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.40 for Botafogo PB.

Santa Cruz vs Botafogo PB Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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