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Forge vs Cavalry Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Group Stage ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 20:00

Forge

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Cavalry

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-031.4%0-118.5%0-25.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.9%1-110.5%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.1%2-13.0%2-20.9%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.0%3-10.6%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.0% 40.3% 2.48 -18.2%

Draw 37.9% 30.8% 3.25 +23.2%

Away win 29.0% 37.7% 2.65 -13.9%

Over 2.5 25.8% 50.0% 2.00 -29.0%

Over 3.5 18.6% 29.0% 3.45 -21.5%

BTTS 43.0% 58.8% 1.70 -26.9%

Home O1.5 11.2% 41.7% 2.40 -43.9%

Away O1.5 11.8% 39.2% 2.55 -41.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.0%

D 38% / xG 0.6-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 31.4%

#2 0–1 18.5%

#3 1–0✓ 17.9%

#4 1–1 10.5%

#5 0–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forge0.6

Cavalry0.6

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FORGE · PPG 2.33

CAVALRY · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.33), Away EXCELLENT (2.50)

Win probability 1X2

Forge (H) 33.0%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -18.2%

Draw 37.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +23.2%

Cavalry (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forge face Cavalry in Canada - Canadian Premier League on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forge a 33% chance, the draw 38% and Cavalry 29%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Forge and 0.6 for Cavalry (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forge are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.50 for Cavalry. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Forge vs Cavalry Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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