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Notodden vs Jerv Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 14:00

Notodden

PPG 0.33 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Jerv

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-111.7%0-210.4%0-36.2%0-4+4.1%1 1-06.2%1-111.0%1-29.8%1-35.8%1-4+3.9%2 2-02.9%2-15.2%2-24.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.8%3 3-00.9%3-11.6%3-21.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.1% 30.8% 3.25 -18.9%

Draw 23.4% 27.4% 3.65 -8.8%

Away win 55.5% 52.4% 1.91 +6.0%

Over 2.5 54.5% 60.6% 1.65 -10.1%

Over 3.5 32.2% 38.5% 2.60 -16.3%

BTTS 54.5% 64.5% 1.55 -15.5%

Home O1.5 24.3% 40.8% 2.45 -24.3%

Away O1.5 53.2% 56.5% 1.77 -5.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -22.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.5%

A 56% / xG 0.9-1.8 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 0–2 10.4%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0✓ 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Notodden0.9

Jerv1.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTODDEN · PPG 0.33

JERV · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Notodden (H) 21.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -18.9%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.8%

Jerv (A) 55.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Notodden face Jerv in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Notodden a 21% chance, the draw 23% and Jerv 56%, so Jerv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Notodden and 1.8 for Jerv (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Notodden are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 3.00 for Jerv. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Notodden vs Jerv Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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