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Mjondalen vs jerv Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Mjondalen

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

UPCOMING

jerv

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 57.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-18.1%0-26.1%0-33.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.6%1-111.4%1-28.7%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.1%2-26.1%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.5%3-13.8%3-22.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 42.0% 2.38 -16.5%

Draw 23.7% 29.4% 3.40 -11.7%

Away win 41.2% 41.7% 2.40 -1.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 65.4% 1.53 -17.7%

Over 3.5 34.4% 44.4% 2.25 -22.6%

BTTS 57.5% 69.4% 1.44 -17.2%

Home O1.5 39.9% 47.6% 2.10 -16.2%

Away O1.5 45.7% 54.6% 1.83 -16.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -41.1%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.5%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–1 8.1%

#5 0–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mjondalen1.4

jerv1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MJONDALEN · PPG 2.38

JERV · PPG 2.22

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mjondalen (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -16.5%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.7%

jerv (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mjondalen face jerv in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mjondalen a 35% chance, the draw 24% and jerv 41%, so jerv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Mjondalen and 1.5 for jerv (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mjondalen are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 2.22 for jerv.

Mjondalen vs jerv Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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