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Sotra vs Vidar Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Sotra

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

UPCOMING

Vidar

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 82% chance

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.2%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.6%1-14.0%1-21.4%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.5%2-16.8%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.8%3-17.6%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-021.6%4+-115.3%4+-25.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.4% 85.5% 1.17 -9.4%

Draw 14.8% 16.7% 6.00 -6.7%

Away win 7.7% 7.7% 13.00 +0.1%

Over 2.5 68.5% 80.0% 1.25 -14.4%

Over 3.5 49.4% 58.8% 1.70 -16.0%

BTTS 52.9% 57.8% 1.73 -8.5%

Home O1.5 77.9% 83.3% 1.20 -6.5%

Away O1.5 18.8% 22.2% 4.50 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -41.1%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.9%

H 77% / xG 3.4-0.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.8%

#2 2–0 9.5%

#3 4–0 9.1%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 1–1 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sotra3.4

Vidar0.7

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.5% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SOTRA · PPG 1.62

VIDAR · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

82%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.68 for Home, form 1.62 vs 0.25 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sotra (H) 77.4%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -9.4%

Draw 14.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -6.7%

Vidar (A) 7.7%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sotra face Vidar in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sotra a 77% chance, the draw 15% and Vidar 8%, so Sotra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Sotra and 0.7 for Vidar (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sotra are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.25 for Vidar.

Sotra vs Vidar Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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