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Arendal vs Sotra Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 14:00

Arendal

PPG 0.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Sotra

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 73.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+24.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-111.2%0-214.6%0-312.6%0-4+15.3%1 1-02.4%1-16.1%1-27.9%1-36.9%1-4+8.3%2 2-00.6%2-11.7%2-22.2%2-31.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.1% 27.8% 3.60 -36.0%

Draw 21.1% 27.0% 3.70 -13.2%

Away win 67.8% 55.6% 1.80 +22.0%

Over 2.5 64.1% 60.6% 1.65 +5.8%

Over 3.5 39.5% 38.5% 2.60 +2.7%

BTTS 47.2% 63.7% 1.57 -25.9%

Home O1.5 10.4% 38.2% 2.62 -43.6%

Away O1.5 73.2% 58.8% 1.70 +24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -22.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob47.2%

A 68% / xG 0.5-2.6 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.6%

#2 0–3 12.6%

#3 0–1 11.2%

#4 0–4 8.2%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arendal0.5

Sotra2.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARENDAL · PPG 0.50

SOTRA · PPG 2.50

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Arendal (H) 11.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -36.0%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.2%

Sotra (A) 67.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arendal face Sotra in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arendal a 11% chance, the draw 21% and Sotra 68%, so Sotra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Arendal and 2.6 for Sotra (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arendal are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 2.50 for Sotra. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +44.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Arendal vs Sotra Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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