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B. Gracanica vs GOSK Gabela Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

FBiH - 19 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 15:00

B. Gracanica

PPG 1.22 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

GOSK Gabela

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.7%0-116.2%0-26.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.8%1-113.0%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.3%2-15.2%2-22.2%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.7%3-11.4%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 50.0% 2.00 -36.2%

Draw 35.0% 32.3% 3.10 +8.5%

Away win 33.2% 29.4% 3.40 +12.9%

Over 2.5 22.4% 40.0% 2.50 -44.0%

Over 3.5 8.3% — — —

BTTS 31.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -30.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob31.0%

D 35% / xG 0.8-0.8 / U2.5 22% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.7%

#2 0–1 16.2%

#3 1–0 15.8%

#4 1–1 13.0%

#5 0–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

B. Gracanica0.8

GOSK Gabela0.8

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 22.4% · O3.5 PROB 8.3%

Form & verdict PPG

B. GRACANICA · PPG 1.22

GOSK GABELA · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.22), Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

B. Gracanica (H) 31.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -36.2%

Draw 35.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +8.5%

GOSK Gabela (A) 33.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

B. Gracanica face GOSK Gabela in Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives B. Gracanica a 32% chance, the draw 35% and GOSK Gabela 33%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for B. Gracanica and 0.8 for GOSK Gabela (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 22% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, B. Gracanica are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.11 for GOSK Gabela. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 2-1.

B. Gracanica vs GOSK Gabela Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

Match Preview & Prediction

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