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Kauno Zalgiris vs Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 11:15

Kauno Zalgiris

PPG 1.88 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Zalgiris

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-16.7%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.7%1-111.1%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.3%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.9%3-15.2%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 59.9% 1.67 -10.3%

Draw 25.1% 29.4% 3.40 -8.8%

Away win 21.2% 22.7% 4.40 -4.0%

Over 2.5 46.8% 55.6% 1.80 -15.8%

Over 3.5 27.8% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

BTTS 47.2% 57.1% 1.75 -17.4%

Home O1.5 49.9% 57.8% 1.73 -13.7%

Away O1.5 17.5% 28.6% 3.50 -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 11.1%

#3 2–0 12.3%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kauno Zalgiris1.7

Zalgiris0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KAUNO ZALGIRIS · PPG 1.88

ZALGIRIS · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Kauno Zalgiris (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -10.3%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.8%

Zalgiris (A) 21.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kauno Zalgiris face Zalgiris in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kauno Zalgiris a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Zalgiris 21%, so Kauno Zalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Kauno Zalgiris and 0.8 for Zalgiris (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kauno Zalgiris are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.29 for Zalgiris. This match finished 0-1.

Kauno Zalgiris vs Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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