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U. de Chile vs Concepcion Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 21:30

U. de Chile

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Concepcion

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.0%0-18.3%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.2%1-110.2%1-22.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.2%2-16.2%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.8%3-12.5%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.0%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 66.7% 1.50 -27.6%

Draw 31.3% 26.3% 3.80 +18.9%

Away win 20.4% 16.0% 6.25 +16.5%

Over 2.5 32.7% 51.8% 1.93 -36.9%

Over 3.5 17.9% 29.9% 3.35 -24.0%

BTTS 41.8% 51.3% 1.95 -18.5%

Home O1.5 34.5% 58.8% 1.70 -41.3%

Away O1.5 7.2% 21.1% 4.75 -39.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob41.8%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.4 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 23.2%

#2 0–0 19.0%

#3 2–0 14.2%

#4 1–1 10.2%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. de Chile1.2

Concepcion0.4

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.7% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

U. DE CHILE · PPG 1.80

CONCEPCION · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=48.3%

Win probability 1X2

U. de Chile (H) 48.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -27.6%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +18.9%

Concepcion (A) 20.4%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

U. de Chile face Concepcion in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. de Chile a 48% chance, the draw 31% and Concepcion 20%, so U. de Chile are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for U. de Chile and 0.4 for Concepcion (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. de Chile are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.86 for Concepcion. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +18.9%. This match finished 2-1.

U. de Chile vs Concepcion Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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