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La Serena vs Colo-Colo Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 19:00

La Serena

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDW

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Colo-Colo

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-113.8%0-29.2%0-34.1%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.5%2-16.0%2-24.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.4%3-11.9%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 25.6% 3.90 +5.8%

Draw 27.2% 29.9% 3.35 -5.3%

Away win 44.8% 53.2% 1.88 -15.8%

Over 2.5 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

Over 3.5 30.0% 29.4% 3.40 +2.0%

BTTS 52.0% 56.5% 1.77 -8.0%

Home O1.5 24.1% 30.3% 3.30 -12.3%

Away O1.5 38.4% 50.0% 2.00 -23.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.0%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 0–1 13.8%

#4 0–2 9.2%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

La Serena0.9

Colo-Colo1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LA SERENA · PPG 1.71

COLO-COLO · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

55%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

La Serena (H) 28.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +5.8%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.3%

Colo-Colo (A) 44.8%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

La Serena face Colo-Colo in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives La Serena a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Colo-Colo 45%, so Colo-Colo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for La Serena and 1.3 for Colo-Colo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, La Serena are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 2.50 for Colo-Colo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 2-4.

La Serena vs Colo-Colo Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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