Today / Al Arabi SC vs Al Nasar

Al Arabi SC vs Al Nasar Prediction

Saturday, May 30, 2026

Al Arabi SC

PPG 1.71 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Nasar

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=53.7%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-16.6%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.8%1-110.4%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-18.1%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.7%3-14.3%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-12.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 21.2% — — —

Over 2.5 46.2% — — —

Over 3.5 27.7% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 46.6% — — —

Away O1.5 10.6% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.8%

#2 2–0 14.8%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 2–1✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Arabi SC1.6

Al Nasar0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ARABI SC · PPG 1.71

AL NASAR · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=53.7%

Win probability 1X2

Al Arabi SC (H) 53.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Al Nasar (A) 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Arabi SC face Al Nasar on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Arabi SC a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Al Nasar 21%, so Al Arabi SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al Arabi SC and 0.6 for Al Nasar (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Arabi SC are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.88 for Al Nasar. This match finished 2-1.

Al Arabi SC vs Al Nasar Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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