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Australia - Victoria NPL logo Australia flag Australia - Victoria NPL Regular Season - 15 Avenger park· Melbourne Saturday, May 30, 2026 05:00
Avondale logo Avondale PPG 2.29
4-0 MISS
Bentleigh G. logo Bentleigh G. PPG 0.67
Home + Over 2.5· +21.2% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
80% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 64.9%
Odds: 1.48 EV: -4.0%
Draw 20.6%
Odds: 4.20 EV: -8.1%
Away 14.5%
Odds: 5.40 EV: -13.0%
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 65.3% Odds: 1.55 +1.2%
Over 3.5 43.1% Odds: 2.38 +2.6%
BTTS 55.3% Odds: 1.65 -8.8%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 3-0
3rd 2-1
4th 3-1
5th 1-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Avondale
2.67
Bentleigh G.
0.82

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 +1.2% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Home + Over 2.5(+21.2%)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
80%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=64.9%

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