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Avondale vs Bentleigh G. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 05:00

Avondale

PPG 2.29 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Bentleigh G.

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 74.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.5%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.1%1-16.7%1-22.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-18.9%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-17.9%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-110.1%4+-24.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% 67.6% 1.48 -4.0%

Draw 20.6% 23.8% 4.20 -8.1%

Away win 14.5% 18.5% 5.40 -13.0%

Over 2.5 65.3% 64.5% 1.55 +1.2%

Over 3.5 43.1% 42.0% 2.38 +2.6%

BTTS 55.3% 60.6% 1.65 -8.8%

Home O1.5 74.7% 69.0% 1.45 +8.3%

Away O1.5 19.9% 30.8% 3.25 -21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.3%

H 65% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 3–0 9.7%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avondale2.7

Bentleigh G.0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AVONDALE · PPG 2.29

BENTLEIGH G. · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=64.9%

Win probability 1X2

Avondale (H) 64.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -4.0%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -8.1%

Bentleigh G. (A) 14.5%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avondale face Bentleigh G. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avondale a 65% chance, the draw 21% and Bentleigh G. 14%, so Avondale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Avondale and 0.8 for Bentleigh G. (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avondale are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.67 for Bentleigh G.. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.2%. This match finished 4-0.

Avondale vs Bentleigh G. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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