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OConnor Knight vs Queanbeyan City Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 05:00

OConnor Knight

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Queanbeyan City

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-18.2%0-29.7%0-37.6%0-4+7.9%1 1-03.5%1-18.2%1-29.7%1-37.6%1-4+7.9%2 2-01.7%2-14.1%2-24.8%2-33.8%2-4+3.9%3 3-00.6%3-11.4%3-21.6%3-31.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.4% 21.7% 4.60 -23.0%

Draw 20.8% 25.0% 4.00 -10.1%

Away win 65.8% 66.7% 1.50 -1.3%

Over 2.5 64.1% 69.4% 1.44 -7.7%

Over 3.5 40.5% 49.0% 2.04 -17.4%

BTTS 55.3% 69.0% 1.45 -19.8%

Home O1.5 26.3% 38.9% 2.57 -19.4%

Away O1.5 68.3% 70.9% 1.41 -3.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -10.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob55.3%

A 66% / xG 1.0-2.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 0–3 7.6%

#5 1–3 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OConnor Knight1.0

Queanbeyan City2.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OCONNOR KNIGHT · PPG 1.80

QUEANBEYAN CITY · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

OConnor Knight (H) 13.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -23.0%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.1%

Queanbeyan City (A) 65.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

OConnor Knight face Queanbeyan City in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OConnor Knight a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Queanbeyan City 66%, so Queanbeyan City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for OConnor Knight and 2.4 for Queanbeyan City (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OConnor Knight are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.50 for Queanbeyan City. This match finished 0-4.

OConnor Knight vs Queanbeyan City Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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