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Ulm vs Havelse Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:30

Ulm

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Havelse

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a clear edge.

+15.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.3%0-23.3%0-32.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-03.4%1-16.9%1-26.9%1-34.7%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.6%2-17.3%2-27.3%2-34.9%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.5%3-15.1%3-25.1%3-33.4%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-14.4%4+-24.4%4+-33.0%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% 59.9% 1.67 -30.5%

Draw 20.4% 23.8% 4.20 -14.3%

Away win 38.0% 23.1% 4.33 +64.5%

Over 2.5 77.9% 67.6% 1.48 +15.3%

Over 3.5 59.0% 46.5% 2.15 +26.9%

BTTS 76.1% 67.6% 1.48 +12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob76.1%

H 42% / xG 2.1-2.0 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 76%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.3%

#2 2–1✓ 7.3%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 1–1 6.9%

#5 3–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulm2.1

Havelse2.0

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.9% · O3.5 PROB 59.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ULM · PPG 1.00

HAVELSE · PPG 0.63

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Ulm (H) 41.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -30.5%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -14.3%

Havelse (A) 38.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +64.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulm face Havelse in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulm a 42% chance, the draw 20% and Havelse 38%, so Ulm are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Ulm and 2.0 for Havelse (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 76% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulm are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.63 for Havelse. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +64.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Ulm vs Havelse Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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