Today / Umea FC vs Boden

Umea FC vs Boden Prediction

Saturday, May 30, 2026

Umea FC

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Boden

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-19.9%0-27.4%0-33.7%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.0%1-112.0%1-29.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.9%2-17.3%2-25.5%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.0%3-13.0%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% — — —

Draw 24.5% — — —

Away win 40.3% — — —

Over 2.5 55.0% — — —

Over 3.5 36.2% — — —

BTTS 57.4% — — —

Home O1.5 34.3% — — —

Away O1.5 44.4% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.4%

A 40% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umea FC1.2

Boden1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.0% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UMEA FC · PPG 1.33

BODEN · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Umea FC (H) 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Boden (A) 40.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Umea FC face Boden on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umea FC a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Boden 40%, so Boden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Umea FC and 1.5 for Boden (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umea FC are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Boden. This match finished 1-1.

Umea FC vs Boden Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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