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Nosaby vs Karlshamn Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Nosaby

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Karlshamn

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=57.0%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.2%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.1%1-19.0%1-23.6%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.7%3-17.0%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-16.2%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 59.9% 1.67 -4.8%

Draw 21.6% 27.8% 3.60 -13.3%

Away win 21.4% 26.3% 3.80 -11.2%

Over 2.5 60.1% 64.5% 1.55 -6.9%

Over 3.5 37.1% 42.0% 2.38 -11.7%

BTTS 55.3% — — —

Home O1.5 63.5% — — —

Away O1.5 19.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -27.8%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.3%

H 57% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nosaby2.2

Karlshamn0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NOSABY · PPG 2.00

KARLSHAMN · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=57.0%

Win probability 1X2

Nosaby (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -4.8%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.3%

Karlshamn (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nosaby face Karlshamn in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nosaby a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Karlshamn 21%, so Nosaby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Nosaby and 0.8 for Karlshamn (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nosaby are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Karlshamn. This match finished 2-2.

Nosaby vs Karlshamn Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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