Today / Ariana vs Laholm

Ariana vs Laholm Prediction

Saturday, May 30, 2026

Ariana

PPG 1.25 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Laholm

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.60)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.3%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.4%1-19.2%1-24.1%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.9%3-17.0%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-16.2%4+-22.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 21.2% — — —

Over 2.5 62.9% — — —

Over 3.5 39.4% — — —

BTTS 55.3% — — —

Home O1.5 63.1% — — —

Away O1.5 22.2% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.3%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 1–1 9.2%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 3–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ariana2.1

Laholm0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARIANA · PPG 1.25

LAHOLM · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Ariana (H) 57.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Laholm (A) 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ariana face Laholm on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ariana a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Laholm 21%, so Ariana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Ariana and 0.9 for Laholm (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ariana are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.60 for Laholm. This match finished 4-2.

Ariana vs Laholm Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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